The DRSed Elephant in the Room
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- By - Dr_Gingerballs
Max Pain: A Story of a Dog and his Tail
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Let's All Dance the Melvin Superswap
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2000 IQ
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- By - Dr_Gingerballs
Superstonk, we have a problem
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- By - Dr_Gingerballs
GME, VoEx, and Delta
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- By - HiddenGooru
Breakdown of OTM MAYO Put Volume for 8/4/2022 (Will always be a day behind) across ALL expirys + Max Pain
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- By - b0atdude87
GameStop has just confirmed what a lot of us know to be true. How will pickle man react to this info ?
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- By - Noxhero2134
GameStop wrote the DTC a spicy little love note re: the splividend š
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OBJECTION!
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When the River Runs Dry and Gherk is High
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- By - triplesek
Does anyone think the price suppression is heavy right now?
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- By - ryebread_10
You're seeing a lot of GME spam because the rocket is about to take off. Don't miss out. Straight facts in here with Ortex graphs.
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- By - iratebutisave
Gamestop Announces 4-1 Stock Split
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To the MOON.
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Here's actual GME, AMC, XRT, BBBY swaps & Actual evidence of AMC being one of the hedges
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2000 IQ
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- By - L33n1xu5
Suspended Brokers (Gaming Stock, Movie Stock & Others), Venues Paying For PFOF (Citadel, Susquehanna Etc) & Patterns Noticed
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Did somebody say 'Murica?
- By - Super_Share_8721
Gamma Hedging, Share Scarcity, Liquidity and GME's unusual affair with all three.
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- By - HiddenGooru
Autopsy of an Options Murder
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- By - Dr_Gingerballs
I think this guy is on to something š
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The C35 cycle married to borrows
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To the MOON.
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- By - No1Important_4real
Autopsy of an Options Murder
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- By - Dr_Gingerballs
I'm not certain about that line of reasoning. You have just always been more "edgy" than most people - extending beyond criticism to a bit of a personal touch.
Maybe Iāll let you in on why my indicators say we donāt close above $45 today. Oh wait, I provide methodology for all of my calculations because Iām not a snake oil salesman.
I'm glad to hear you're starting out with creating metrics too! That is exciting. If you ever need feedback on which data is statistically relevant (that is, unlike using, running average of price, volume, or IV; all of which have no statistical relevancy with future price action), I would genuinely and truly love to help.
I prefer to get my work checked by people who have experience having their own work checked, thanks.
[ŃŠ“алено]
Go and look on your own purple circle jerk sub. The mods are trying to explain to people reeeeeee-ing that the dtcc used the correct codes and split the stock in a way consistent with what GME wanted. Every potential āscandalā being flung around by whatever morons are left over there are based on either ridiculous assumptions or an inability to comprehend what they are reading. The dtcc splits stocks via dividend all the time. Why do you think they wouldnāt have thought to implement away to split shorts as well? You are never going to break the system by operating within it. DRS, stock splits, dividends, fails to deliver, stock lending, all of it was designed, operated, and largely policed by the dtcc itself.
[ŃŠ“алено]
Watching the dividend stupor implode on itself is going to be marvelous.
When I initially wrote the post, I more did it from the lens of "I am sharing information on what could potentially cause dividend issues." It is just a theory and I could be wrong. Your comment is a fair callout, but let me throw this idea out. Selling a call (at any strike) and buying the lowest strike puts would still mimic a short. Your gains would just be more capped. The open interest at the really low strikes is quite high for Jan 2023- about 308K at $1 and below.
Those deep otm puts are a volatility hedge. Calls are mostly bought right now. No one is shorting GameStop beyond the shares already borrowed right now. Since may itās pretty much just been longs pumping the stock.
Let's pretend you're right and there are no synthetic shorts. What do you think is contributing to the broker challenges around the dividend/split?
There arenāt any challenges. Most of their challenges are forward facing service employees being asked questions about market mechanics that they simply donāt know anything about.
Please read my old dd called max pain a dog and his tale on stonkerstonk. Max pain is a lagging indicator that simply follows the price around. Market makers are hedged to be price neutral, so they make about the same amount of money regardless of which contracts expire otm.
GameStop just confirmed that they distributed shares through their transfer agent who then sent them on to the DTC. The issue seems to be centered around international brokerages. I think the community is panicking about what amounts to a very small issue in the scheme of things and can be resolved at those brokerages (many of whom have already have) in due time. Not everything is a catalyst, and for a MOASS event to take place many separate catalysts would have to come together simultaneously. This is why I tell people it is improbable but not impossible.
I am actually a shill.
Apes: they treated it like a split so everyone just got synthetics!
I haven't read this yet, but will read in its entirety. Assuming this is a counter-DD, so going to label it as such.
Bob you are part of his discord you have been there forever, and you participate enough to know this is complete and utter bullshit.
Chill. He changed the flair. Say your piece and downvote the post and move on.
[ŃŠ“алено]
We are working on different things right now. Iām not entirely sure what his dd entails.
So your saying it's all over? How come you've suddenly changed your tune? You and gherk seem very negative lately
We still need to see how the landscape has changed after the split, but they definitely aren't using the options chain to slam us like they used to. And the current listed SI seems to be relatively stable.
Nah not MOASS many, MANY other things can occur from a legal standpoint and you donāt want to be on the wrong side of and remember for things that have never happened b4 - they will look to any precedents which maybe close. Say brokers did messed up the splividend and GameStop gives the DTC 90 days notice for pulling shares out.
Wait, so you think GameStop is going to delist themselves? Yikes.
I feel you are just here to capture volatility on cycles and make short term money.. you keep focusing on 1 point to argue against and have a very narrow opinion on what will happen vs planning for a number of scenarios.
Donāt forget to prepare yourself for an alien invasion while you are at it. Ignoring probabilities in your risk management strategy isnāt risk management at all.
If I remember correctly from time and sales those were pretty close to the mid but more likely sold.
They better hope that the NFT marketplace takes off because their operational free cash flow is massively negative. I'd give them to mid-2024 before they use up the rest of their cash on hand. If I gave enough of a shit I'd wager on them selling shares at some point to raise funds.
Gotta split the stock to increase liquidity so they can reduce slippage on next at the money stock offering.
Letās ignore that FTDs have been dropping since June, and the call OI on the options chain is the lowest itās ever been since the sneeze. Once the stock splits and liquidity increases this stock is going to get obliterated.
Iām particularly sus, because unlike previous runs where we entered opex with a huge put position on the chain that unwinds, we have essentially no negative market maker hedge, and Monday will likely mark the new all time low OI on the options chain since the sneeze. Also different from previous runs is that all of the options activity was concentrated to this week, meaning All of that positive market maker hedge is going to dump next week.
The whole notion that the split will negatively impact the shorts is based on a completely incorrect understanding of how the market works. There is no such thing as a real or fake share. There are simply settled and unsettled transactions. They track ownership by netting trades, not by counting shares.
I am making an assumption below about your perspective here. If I have that wrong, let me know.
I completely disagree with your choice of the word synthetic to describe street name shares. Itās confusing and many people are using the term synthetic to literally mean a counterfeit share. It also perpetuates an incorrect framework for thinking about shares. I prefer settled/unsettled for that reason.
While I understand your settled/unsettled perspective, the fact is your missing voting as part of the equation. Voting is not a super sexy topic, which is why it is minimized. I thought voting had it's fame and in particular when the vote clearly showed normalization last year.
I agree that voting is an important right for shareholders. If I thought that a single DRSed GME share was put there for voting rights, I would care more about it. But people are obviously DRSing to try and cause a short squeeze, not stand up for their right to vote in proxies they would normally just throw away in the trash.
I have problems with this dd. First, some minor details are used incorrectly to try and create a narrative. For example, there is a claim that continuous net settlement somehow devalues trades. That is not true. It simply offloads the bookkeeping complexity from the settlement system to the brokers. But CNS has nothing to do with long term price discovery. It can smooth buy and sell pressure over time but it canāt dilute it.
Itās always cringe when tinfoil from ss leaks out.
[ŃŠ“алено]
Sure, itās the connections between the events to weave your story that makes it tin foil. You are building your theory backwards. You are starting from CRiMe!!! and creating a narrative around data to fit that theory, instead of letting data guide your theory making.
I really liked this write up. It was a little confusing, but highlights well the oddities of this illiquid stock that is mostly driven by its derivatives. Thanks for contributing.
Dr_Gingerballs
I think the calls are for buy-writes to reset FTDs.
So if price drops, IV drops. And if price rises, IV rises? I thought IV was a prediction of how much price will change based on previous movement.
It is that as well. The market maker bases the price of the option based on the probability it will go in the money before expiry, which is based on how much the stock price fluctuates.
Maybe Iām reading the chart wrong but it looks like we are at a point where they have MORE shares to borrow. They were at the low point in share borrowing in late May and they will be again in mid to late July.
We are currently at a point where borrowable share inventory is really low. So if the OP is claiming we are at a point where we have a lot of shares to borrow, something is fundamentally flawed with his theory.
I couldn't afford the theta this go around, so I didn't have any contracts. Glad that "don't buy weeklies" finally got through to me. I feel for all of you that didn't get out in time. I was having Feb flashbacks.
I think the conditions of the stock are fairly different this time around. But we will see.