U.S. economy shrinks again in second quarter, reviving recession fears

  1. to add everyone is praying that no one gets hurt or sick because then its really game over. I can barely stay afloat and then you add an injure worth thousands fuck it just let what ever it is take me out

  2. And here I thought spent money was supposed to recirculate. Guess it's all just disappearing? What a mystery

  3. That diesel fuel price is a big factor. We ship a lot by truck. Fuel cost increases cause increased shipping costs. Fucking war in Ukraine really fucked with the price

  4. My raise was 3% this year. Inflation from the year prior was 8.1% at that time. Got a 5.1% demotion. Most of the restaurants I would eat at have 25% or more price increases recently. Utilities are not bad, yet. Wait until some of the current price contracts run out. Many people are not aware, but natural gas sets the electric grid prices. Natural gas is about 3x what it was a year ago if you need to buy straight from the market.

  5. It's hard to say which direction rising prices points - higher prices means that the same amount of transactions equates to a higher GDP, but higher prices are often the result of a decrease in supply, which equates to a lower GDP. Employment is rising, but stocks are falling. It's a confusing set of indicators that are existing in combinations that haven't been seen for at least 40 years, and perhaps ever.

  6. Yeah but according to conservatives and every economist, we got a $1200 check 2 years ago so our bank accounts should be flush with cash, so shouldn't be hard to buy things.

  7. The man who owns the company I work for makes more than ALL employees combined. He shows up to the office a grand of total of maybe 15 hours/month. Of those 15 hours, he works maybe 3. The amount of whining and moaning lately about how he's "not making any money" is enough to make to make me nauseous. The company makes good money, enough to pay the people WHO ARE THERE KEEPING THE BUSINESS GOING, and then some. If we could remove the dead weight (him), we could all make a hefty chunk more and still be doing just fine. But no. He has his vacation house to maintain, and his kid's full college tuition to pay, and 10 vehicles to insure (boat, car, truck, another truck, a vintage truck, wife's car, kid's car, two golf carts...sorry I guess that's only 9.) Won't we stop to think about HIM??

  8. But jobs are continuing to grow at a high rate. It's weird for that to be happening at the same time as shrinking GDP. All this weirdness is likely the result of a year or two of unprecedented sudden changes in economic activity all around the world during the pandemic, combined with current random fluctuations in China due to their zero-Covid policy.

  9. Ya it’s silly they keep talking about “headed towards recession”. The market is down 12% on the year. And that is just one example of reasons it’s silly to claim we’re not already at the beginning.

  10. I mean. Isn’t this expected and the desired outcome almost when you jack up interest rates? You actively discourage spending

  11. Uncontrollable inflation is FAR worse than a recession. Raising interest rates is like giving a cancer patient chemo; yeah, it will make them very sick BUT it's better than not getting it.

  12. Just hoping we don’t have a repeat of 2008. It’s been a crappy couple of years and the people living pay check to pay check need some form of stability for sanity.

  13. This one is most likely similar to the 2001 or 1991 versions. '07-'09 was really built off the housing collapse and the resulting financial crisis. A whooooole different beast.

  14. When the sun will eventually expand and burn then devour our planet, everything is transitory

  15. In the UK, yes. The definition of a recession in the United States has been, for your entire life, "when the National Bureau of Economic Research declares there is a recession."

  16. No. There actually isn't an agreed upon measure for when we're in a recession. The media commonly uses the 2 declining quarters of GDP measure for simplicity. However,

  17. People use it but it's not accurate or official. In the USA we've had several recessions that don't follow that: 1980 and 2020 as examples. Like a lot of things "it's more complicated than that".

  18. It’s not a surprise, we all saw this coming but the Biden admin has been consistently asserting that we aren’t in a recession and then trying to change the definition of a recession.

  19. I know everything has been up but prices for commodities have been falling since late June. It's rent and housing prices that are becoming more and more expensive and the fed isn't helping by increasing mortgage rates. I wish we could do something about REIT's. There is a shortage of housing, why are we allowing access to an absolute necessity to be a commodity? REIT growth has been explosive the past year at the same rate rent has exploded. This isn't a damn coincidence. There is a shortage of housing. Force REIT's to build their own damn properties instead of snatching up single family homes, turning them into rentals, and making the shortage even fucking worse.

  20. Roughly 1 in 4 houses in America is bought by investors. Right when millennials are entering the housing market in droves. To follow basic financial advice and buy a median home in my area you need roughly $120k to put down and your housing payment would be roughly $3,500/mo. What first time homebuyer can afford that?

  21. So when you reduce the ability of the vast majority of people's ability to buy things due to wage stagnation and inflation it causes a recession? No way!

  22. Technically not true. Earnings this quarter have been pretty bad for major corps. That said they still have profits just not record profits like last year.

  23. When the majority of people have nothing left to lose, nowhere to go and are willing to seriously die for change.

  24. Personally I say we start with every politician that’s been a pedo supporter by not demanding Epstein and Maxwells list be public knowledge, commit insider trading, and accept bribes. But I’m not picky so whichever we decide to give a good tar and feather first is fine.

  25. It's one definition often used by the media. NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) looks at several measures of economic activity besides GDP.

  26. I was very confused after watching the last John Oliver. Apparently the problem is multi-faceted, which I buy. But one of those "facets" was: people having too much money (via stimulus and the child tax credit thing they did) for a minute. That makes NO sense to me. The money was fine and good, but IMO is only helped to fill the gap from lost employment on account of covid, being home sick on account of covid, etc. IDK. It wasn't some grand extra boost. And it was short-lived.

  27. Only 4.7% of the population holds multiple jobs according to the BLS. The US is doing a shit load to help Ukraine. Are you advocating we invade? Will you sign up and go fight Russia?

  28. re·ces·sion - a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

  29. Wait, wait, wait....I'm no economist, so you'll have to dumb it down for me...so you're saying that the price of virtually everything doubling over a couple of months....actually HURT the economy?

  30. For people wondering; "What the hell is going on with all these countries' economies doing so badly?"

  31. My favorite part about this is we have American companies parasites reporting record profits like it isn’t a problem. Greatest country in the world amirite?

  32. Corporations raised prices as fast as they possibly could to extract as much money as they could. This is just a balancing of the economy.

  33. Meanwhile I can't afford to buy even a tiny shack with a small yard and rent prices skyrocketing are forcing me out of apartments.

  34. Didn't they change the definition of a recession so it doesn't look as bad? Feel like they wrote books about such a thing.

  35. Fears recession? This is a recession. The next quarter will be in the negative again. Then what will be the excuse of the recession deniers? Will it be then called a transitory recession?

  36. This gaslighting about whether we're in a recession or not is crazy. This is why people don't trust the media, because you only need to go back to 2020 to see the media calling two quarters of negative growth a recession.

  37. So the economy meeting the actual definition of a recession has promoted recession fears? Not the rampant inflation the government is trying to put off as normal?

  38. Yeah not the gas prices, inflation (like you said), the food shortages no one talks about (I do overnight stocking at a retail store), animal epidemics bird flu, list goes on.

  39. The messages from the government have not been that this is normal. What would you like for them to do that they are not?

  40. Technically a recession, yes. But yet my employers still can't seem to fill all open positions. We make things with steel, and prices are coming down steadily. Gas prices have fallen by a dollar or more in the past month, it seems. My general sentiment regarding the economy is not as grim as it was when the pandemic began, nor when Russia first invaded Ukraine earlier this year.

  41. Unemployment is bottomed out and companies are posting record profits quarter after quarter, year after year. We haven't even lost half of the last quarter of 2021's growth yet. Feels like it's gonna be a brief and shallow recession. I certainly hope so.

  42. Wait??? You telling me that excessively gouging prices will cause consumers to pull back and not spend? Hmmm…this has to be blamed on the consumer right? And any and all suffering must be then passed on to consumers…right?

  43. Yeah but the White House redefined the word recession so we’re all good folks, no need to worry. Economy is doing ok.

  44. Even with positive GDP growth, the average citizen was hardly having an easy time. So much emphasis is placed on GDP, often forgetting what that term even measures.

  45. "...reviving recession fears" as if negative growth in two consecutive quarters is not an indicator that we are already in a recession.

  46. This isn’t a “recession fears” situation. This is a “we see the moon sized asteroid coming toward earth, but choosing to say it’s just an asteroid fear” type situation.

  47. Not sure what this indicates but I’ve noticed some recent used boats in the 50 to 80k US range drop from 10 to 20% in the past 2 weeks

  48. And this is exactly what happens when you print the majority of your country’s money out of thin air in two years to bail yourselves out of the COVID crash.

  49. Wait just a damn minute, are you telling me that record growth and profit doesn't just go on forever and it was largely fake? what next are you going to tell me that china is having problems to? /s

  50. Joe Biden will be a one term President, mark my words. Inflation + recession will sink him just like it sunk Carter.

  51. I think that's what most people expect, including people that voted for Biden (also me). Even without a recession, I wouldn't want Biden in 2024. Fuck 75+ years old presidents (and politicians in general).

  52. I don't think anyone has thought otherwise, dems aren't looking for old god-kings like some other parties

  53. I’m old school. I use the definition of recession everyone agreed on in the prehistoric times of two weeks ago. We’re in a recession. May it be a short one.

  54. Its hilarious how transparent the bias is showing. Much of the mainstream news is calling this “recession signal” even CNBC, but if you go to fox news its literally “recession confirmed”. Its so stupid how this is just a numerical fact but still its spun in both directions. No one wants this to happen. But call it what it is.

  55. Q1 Real GDP has already been adjusted upwards by more than Q2 is negative and they are thinking it will be adjusted further upwards(probably not enough to be positive), but Q2 could easily be adjusted upwards enough to be positive.

  56. It is funny how really nobody can explain what is going on. None of the so called experts. Maybe because we never had a pandemic like this in modern times. Really no historical precedent that is equivalent. They just need to take notes and stop guessing, learn and be better prognosticators next time.

  57. It's already fucking here, I'm pretty sure everyone with a retirement fund was in the red for the last two quarters.

  58. I love how it “revived recession fear”. We’re already in it. What metrics are they waiting for to declare recession? We’re constantly fucked from the middle on down and it’s worse than ever.

  59. But decapitation isn’t the only indicator that someone may be dead, there are many other factors involved. Of course, I can’t think of an example of someone who was decapitated and still alive.

  60. So he's not dead, he just has injuries incompatible with life. He's not dead until we have a doctor declare him "officially" dead. S/

  61. This highlights the need for a new system of economics. The current system was (likely unwittingly) designed to thrive only when it grows. The thing is, an economy based in consumption cannot grow forever in a world of limited resources. Without Keynesian money-flow adjustment, the system we have today would have died around the time of World War II.

  62. The thing that’s driven things crazy in the 21st century is speculation. You look at company’s like Tesla that have had insane speculation driving stock prices that is completely disconnected from reality. It would take a huge market correction for things to come back down to earth. Same thing is happening right now with real estate. But investors, the corps, and the gov don’t want that.

  63. This is the only outcome. What else do you expect to happen 3 years after turning on the national money printer and using it 24/7?

  64. America is too divided at this point. The only way anything would change is if the entire population unites and says "enough", but 74 million people proved in 2020 that they are fine with chaos in both the political and financial world.

  65. Reviving? The only ones in denial of the recession are those in government. The general public knew all of the stimulus was just funny money and it did nothing to address the underlying, systemic issues plaguing the world financial markets. Nothing was corrected after 2008; the fixes were piecemeal and half-assed. The financial markets merely shifted risk from mortgages (which are now again in pretty bad shape anyway) and spread it among different asset classes. Think about how many businesses have gone belly-up since 2008. They’ve been systematically bankrupted so hedge-funds and market-makers could continue their gluttonous, disgusting style of capitalism. We’re in a recession? No shit, we have been for years and all of the market growth that has taken place in the meantime has been a farce at best, criminal at worst.

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